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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.