🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.