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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”