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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.