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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still